Book chapter

HIV prevalence estimates: the new deal in Sub-Saharan Africa since 2000



HIV prevalence and incidence data are necessary at different levels, for monitoring the epidemics, understanding their dynamics, determining priorities of actions, modelling AIDS impact on population and so on. In macro-economy, HIV prevalence is often an important parameter of the models. HIV prevalence data are often used for evaluation, planning and advocacy and so their uses are very political.

Since 2000, changes in UNAIDS estimates have reflected improvements in the methodology used. For example, the estimated number of persons living with HIV worldwide in 2007 was 33.2 million (30.6–36.1 million) (UNAIDS, 2007), a reduction of 16 per cent compared with the estimate published in 2006 (39.5 million (34.7–47.1 million)) (UNAIDS, 2006). This difference is largely due to more accurate data and assumptions about HIV epidemics. So, UNAIDS estimates from different reports cannot be directly compared and apparent trends do not reflect HIV epidemic trends. This chapter will review and discuss the different sources of HIV data and the estimation methodology used.


Larmarange Joseph (2008) « HIV prevalence estimates: the new deal in Sub-Saharan Africa since 2000 », in The Political Economy of HIV/AIDS in Developing Countries: TRIPS, Public Health Systems and Free Access, éd. par Benjamin Coriat, Cheltenham : Edward Elgar, p. 169-189. ISBN : 978-1-84844-077-7.